Labour’s first budget for over a decade

This first Budget handed down recently by our newly elected Labour Government was similar in outcome to those spending cuts initiated by the former Coalition (which was in office for the past 3 terms in Australia) in its first term in office before it embarked on lager scale spending programme which aggravated inflation. I think that’s much less likely to happen with this Government.

The underlying surplus of 1.8% of GDP at just under $22 billion was higher than I expected. The major surprise announcements were the new infrastructure funds to be created of $40 billion and the removal of the current exemption for condensate, which is a light crude oil, extracted from natural gas and now will be subject to existing crude excise fees. The Infrastructure Funds are basically created from the surplus this year and next since the Government is debt free and adds to an existing $20 billion Future Fund. It’s a frugal budget appropriate to our high inflation situation which has been well received by the financial markets. The withholding tax provisions on foreign investments are to be progressively reduced to 7.5% by 2011 which has immediately resulted in several large offshore super funds investing here and the government hopes this provision will enable Australia to become the financial hub for the Asian region.

There were a number of additional measures such as excise increases on popular premixed drinks and additional taxes on luxury cars which had mooted beforehand.

There were disappointments however; I would have thought we could afford to be more generous in the provision of foreign aid (set at $3.7 billion) the environment and to indigenous Australians. In economic terms the danger is that while the Govt, is at pains to indicate this budget will ease inflationary pressures, most initiatives have considerable time lags. You could say at least it’s a budget that will not make things any worse and that finally after 2 years the ongoing conflict between monetary policy (the need for high interest rates to dampen inflationary demands aggravated by Government spending exceeding inflation) and fiscal policy has been removed as both are now pointing in the same direction. Terms of Trade are anticipated to rise another 20% this year and at that rate don’t be surprised if the expected surplus of $22 billion starts to balloon to a much larger figure in a year’s time.

It has been estimated Australia will need another $500 billion in infrastructure investment within the next 10 years. The ongoing surpluses combined with investment funds allocated from Super funds, currently amounting to 3 trillion and growing, should comfortably cover these requiremnts looking forward into the medium term. Another aspect concerns the skills shortages in implementing these huge infrastructure projects which is being addressed by the annual migrants intake expected at 180,000, up 30,000 on last year. That’s a lot of people who will be buying homes! Nevertheless the amount of household debt still remains very high and although mortgage arrears are at very low levels (around 1%) this also remains of a continuing concern. Link

Absurd person singular

The Malawi Support Group recently held a very succesful fundraising theatre night to see this hilarious comedy written by Alan Ayckbourn entitled Absurd person singular. The theatre was fully booked.

In attendance were students from a Melbourne university who are all from the Ithaca campus of Cornell University in NY see http://www.cornell.edu/visiting/ithaca/ and are over here for a semester to study Australian history for a term under the guidance of my friend who lectures in the humanities faculty. It was over lunch I suggested maybe they could all benefit from experiencing some local culture, and consequently they enjoyed the show and our hospitality afterwards.

Above are some of the smiling faces taken with one complementary drink just before the show was to begin. Afterwards we supplied sandwiches and tea and coffee to conclude what was a most enjoyable evening.

Link

Mind over Mass

When the six billion dollar particle accelerator currently under construction is completed scientists can finally conduct an experiment which will replicate these conditions at the time of the big bang during primordial creation. This experiment which involves collision of sub atomic particles travelling at close to the speed of light hopes to finally answer the question as to how mass was first formed. Mass is such a fundamental aspect to our universe it is hard to imagine one without it. Yet any mass form when you reduce it to its individual smallest component parts at the sub atomic level gives no consistent clues as to how it accumulates in the first place.

The question science is unable answer is what causes the energised particles to accumulate to form a mass as opposed to those that remain separate and are exactly the same. What is the hex factor? Gravity and energy simply warps and shapes these masses into various states of equilibrium and never ending collapses and re births of stars but no theory has satisfactorily explained how mass arises without leaving one with heaps of other unresolved questions.

Should this question remain elusive it confirms reality from a scientific point of view lies outside our understanding. Perhaps in our lifetimes it always will. Link

Phillip Island

We recently joined a group of friends who had organized a week’s bushwalking at Phillip Island located 140 kilometers south-east of Melbourne. The island formed part of those lands inhabitated by the coastal aborigines called the Bunurong people and was discovered by George Bass in 1798 in his whaleboat measuring only 28 feet in length.

It now has a permanent population of 7500 residents and a large variety of migartory birds and native animals.

The pictures were taken during a number of beautiful walks across and along the shores and include pictures of 2 Cape Baron Geese. The Island has abundant wild life including Wombats, Kangaroos, Koalas and many migrating birds such as the Shearwater. These reamakable birds fly north along the western part of the Pacific Ocean to the Arctic region and return southwards through the centre of the ocean, travelling 15 000 kilometres in each direction annually. They have been known to fly this distance in just six weeks.

Our walks were across interesting bushland and on the coastal routes you viewed the roaring surf from steep cliff tops and then to descend to the relative tranquility of more sheltered bays. There was also seals and the penguin parade which is a popular tourist attraction.

We returned earlier than expected as my wife (who had not joined in the walks due to recurrent hip and back irritation) suffered a particually acute attack and has now been hospitalized and will probably undergo surgery very soon.

Link

Rain drops kept falling on our house

The steady drumming of an army of torrential rain on our tin roof abated bringing a welcome respite, but the night sky remained dark and menacing as faint moon beams cast a deathly shadow through the clouds to shimmer over murky brown waters below. My world had magically turned into a raging sea of swirling brown mud and debris captive to its fast flowing current. There was nothing else in front of me.

Day’s earlier under an endless blue sky , cattle peacefully grazed on pastures beside a tranquil river which meandered behind our home in Kyogle. It was a time in my life of certainty and endless childhood joy as I rushed home from school each day into the paddocks with my companions to play imaginative games by the river. Armed with our swords fashioned from left over wooden crates the grazing cattle became imagined ferocious wild animals, trees our only refuge, our pet dog and cat our faithful protectors. Each day our activities were interrupted by my mother calling from the porch ‘The Search’, an abbreviation for our favourite radio show. ‘The Search for the Golden Boomerang” was due to commence. We listened intently and with such excitement as is only possible when the unseen is allowed to expand from word descriptions alone to such grand proportions within a child’s imagination.

The family home built on high stilts was purchased as flood free and consequently despite the cyclonic rain of that fateful day we believed would be safe. As the floodwaters entered our backyard I imagined myself as a fisherman and dangled my line in the brown waters. But as my excitement increased as the rising waters inched up the back steps, my parents decided it was prudent to evacuate across the road to a neighbour located on much higher ground. My father told me not to worry as he was staying on to protect our furniture and effects by storing it upstairs and on the roof.
My mother, clutching a hurriedly packed small suitcase and I walked through torrential rain down the front steps up on to the road then across the steep grassy slope leading up to the steep steps of our neighbours house. Once I had changed from wet clothes I was able to join my neighbours son who was one of my companions. One of his favourite games was to act as a pretend priest (as he had already determined this was to be his adult vocation). He took great delight in donning whatever colorful garb he could lay his hands on and with added silverware proceeded to administer his own version of holybread and water to cheer us up. Even so I felt less than reassured and soon wandered out on to the front verandah to see what was happening.

The rain had abated for a temporary reprise and I could see my father swimming around in our flooded home, attempting to place objects onto a higher vantage point in what was a futile attempt to avoid the ever raising floodwaters. Mother was becoming increasingly concerned as the floodwaters became stronger and lapped over the window sills. She watched intently, her small frame rigid like a mousetrap ready to snap at the slightest surface disturbance. I sensed her growing fear but to our relief my father apparently realized the futility of any further endeavors and struck out with slow measured strokes through the half submerged bedroom window for the safety of dry land.

It was a long swim through raging waters. I observed his usual slow unhurried but rhythmic style that characterized everything he did in life and it was with mild relief I saw him reach dry land. Still fully clothed, cold, and exhausted yet determined, he manfully hauled himself up onto the bank. Eventually he joined us on the verandah as we all watched in silence our house disappear under the mighty waters of the Richmond River. I remembered thinking that this adventure had reached its final climax and wondered what had befallen others. I stood observing and saw a new world in front of me, one that had been transformed unto a raging sea of swirling brown mud and debris.

Elsewhere tragedies were occurring. Some folk lost their lives as homes were washed away in the raging torrent whilst others perished when their rescue boat capsized. Others clung on grimly to trees and were miraculously rescued. Amongst the sadness of stories too deep for a young heart to fully understand were other of great heroism as men with their flimsy boats rushed to continually help those in desperate trouble.When the waters subsided we returned to what was left of our family home. I will never forget the endless mud and that pungent odor, like no other I have ever experienced a reminder of unexpected death and destruction. But I cannot recall feeling frightened or lonely. Even as our meager supplies dwindled word came that help was on its way. Sure enough the faithful drone of a DC 3 aircraft signaled a hope for fresh produce as we watched white parachutes with their heavily laden supplies attached drift earthward into our welcoming hands.In the aftermath the sheets of corrugated iron dislodged from houses were put to good use to make canoes. The iron was simply folded over and both ends sealed with tar, to deliver milk and supplies to stranded townsfolk. Each morning search parties sett out with grim faces to look for bodies. Every organization imaginable rushed in to help including the local Girl Guides Association who were recognized later with an international award for their outstanding service. All of the community shared in its tragedy and no one felt alone.

It was too painful for my parents to stay so they sold the family home for a fraction of its previous value and the financial consequences and hardship lingered on for many years afterwards.
The memories of our beloved home in its delightful setting, transformed into a sea of brown surf, remain with me as clear today as they were so long ago. Link

Love of Credit

How are you going to pay for a new car and your daughters wedding I asked?

Credit is the obvious answer. The new car can be repaid over the next 5 years with a very hefty residual at the end of the lease period rather than having to find a deposit at the beginning.
The dealers giving me cash for my old car, I can scarcely believe the trade in amount which will more than cover my daughters wedding. It’s the best thing since sliced bread. The future can only be blue sky.

And communities living in sparkling new houses can be created from land and house packages that don’t need a deposit either.
The financiers work with the devolopers to make all those dreams come true with the magic of credit. And all of the new furniture purchased doesn’t require any repayment until 2 years hence. The credit cards they have will look after the honeymoon. It’s incredible. I think they may all be in love, with the credit system I mean.

But that only represents the first blush of this affair. Established home owners who had equity in their homes were chastised for allowing this credit to lay idle, rather to take advantage of the opportunity to make more serious money by becoming a property investor and buying other houses, or maybe to suitably reward themselves with a decent holiday or to buy a more prestigious car or just about anything at all. In fact these equity loans were designed to make people feel good, to do what they liked with the money. Sure enough many fell in love with the idea all over the western world; and so began the golden age of love of credit.

Society itself is also benefitting in this golden age since some governments are also discovering the beauty of credit. They can spend far more than receive and promise a whole lot more than would have been possible, should that have been restricted to that which represented the sum total of all of their receipts less expenditure. If the figures add up to huge amounts in borrowings it wont matter either, since it’s making the world so happy they will always want to keep increasing their lending by increasing credit limits.

Alas sometimes balloons burst but there will always be people willing to chip in few extra dollars to buy some more and blow them up again. Besides the extra spending is creating employment. When the repayment becomes unsustainable you simply sell off your national assets to the creditors.

Credit helps make the world go around only so long as it can be repaid from savings.

At the end of the day the only real wealth ever to exist is that which is sustainable and capable of sustaining us in perpetuity. Link

Saving a nation from debt

Cart has included a posting about the importance of savings which I agree.
Credit I think will always be a useful means to acquire investments such as houses, belongings and for infrastructure providing such credit is based upon sensible repayments reasonably identifiable as future savings.

Modern day economies have become much more complicated in their dealings with the rest of the world but any nation’s credit standing and rating will always be reflective of its underlying ability to repay its debts and have regard to its sustainability.

In a complicated world I think there is also a tendency for unfounded fear. One such aspect concerns derivatives. Financial derivatives do not represent credit and financial writers have given the impression of looming trillion dollar liabilities which threaten to bankrupt the entire economies of the world. What is not always understood is that this is a zero sum game so that if every transaction was simultaneously collapsed, the net effect is zero. E.g. Losers cancel out those who gained. Any leveraging of these positions by credit will simply multiply their effects. In that case lenders, should they be foolish enough to lend without security in such speculative ventures could experience losses given a bad bet. It is estimated derivatives only represent about 3% of the worlds total transactional values.
Banks and intermediaries should not be involved in such speculative activity, (which represent no more than a sophisticated form of gambling) but rather it’s activities should be confined to the legitimate role to be played in hedging. An example is to purchase currency in advance to ensure a known outcome for its clients for a given premium, akin to an insurance policy in which the bank and its client are not subject to any risk.

In the western world the past decade (what was also evident in periods before) has seen an increase in the real prices of real estate by up to 120% which presided over a period of love for credit as householders leveraged that increased equity in their homes by borrowing for both current consumption and investment. Lending institutions became less concerned about the ability of borrowers to repay their loan, whether it is housing, consumer or commercially related. The idea you should have sufficient deposit to support any loan application and have demonstrated a prior saving ability sufficient to reasonably repay the loan has almost disappeared from view. It is also contended that had their been no subprime lending in the US, (with latest estimated losses of $500 billion) other losses in different areas are now likely to exceed this figure. The sub prime lending was one large mountain on a mountainous range.

Consequently western countries during this decade have collectively reduced their savings to zero and in some cases it has become negative. Worse still some counties have continued to operate their government sectors under massive deficits, spending more than they receive in government taxes and revenue from their citizens and institutions , further exasperating the lack of savings. The other side of the coin is represented by creditor nations who have lent the money to finance this unsustainable spending, particularly from India, China and the oil rich economies.

Savings are not only important in terms of money but also in relation to our materials and resources. Western nations have also been the greatest users and denuders of natural resources, to the extent we are unsustainable and we give a very poor example to the developing nations. Progress in the future will depend upon the ability of western countries to engender a greater saving philosophy and sustainability. Our developing neighbors are much more likely to follow suite by way of good example.

One Proposal I think that has merit is the idea of setting up a National Climate Changer savings Scheme. Instead of paying higher interest rates on loans by borrowers it proposes a deduction from taxable income remitted to this national savings fund. The fund would be available to make repayments back to those individuals when they are able to present future investments in any energy infrastructure that can be demonstrated to result in carbon abatement.
If you’re interested in the full scheme particulars click here Link

Sub prime fiasco

Who’s to blame for the subprime fiasco.

Not the valuers who inflated their worth
Inflated a bubble that only could burst
Creating a dream for those who have less
Without the checks, to create less mess

Not politicians because the Feds been too lax
Not Banks who approved just the loan facts
Not Brokers who brought in the business
Paid in incentives with super commissions

Not borrowers, who don’t bother with fine print
Or the Wall Street Brokers just part of a link
Or traders who sold them on 4 more times
And were too busy to read between the lines

Or the rating agencies who gave them a tick
It must be okay, just houses and bricks
It must be okay, the world bought our stock
But no one expected those house prices could flop

It’s all happened before, its part of history
The percussions will continue, those guilty found out
Breathe sighs of relief, it’s the end of the route
It wasn’t an axis of evil’s monetary tree
Just old fashioned greed and naivety. Link

Tenebrae at Eltham

We gathered to meditate on the most sacred day of the year. The focus of our ceremony was the seven sayings of Christ uttered when he was dying on the cross. Through a series of psalms, reflections and sacred music, we were led to the foot of the Cross.

later in the darkened church the lighted candles represented our world about to be plunged into darkness.

The lights were gradually extinguished throughout the ceremony until only one flame remained, symbolising Christ. When the last light disappeared a loud noise (strepitus) was made to remind us of the earthquake on that fateful day on Calvary.

Link

Crazy Whist Card Game

Last evening we conducted a Malawi Crazy Whist fundraiser card night which was enjoyed by everyone, including many who had not previously played and learnt to play for the first time. We had a practice session beforehand. We provided prizes for those with the highest points (although you play in pairs each person keeps a score sheet).

In Crazy Whist winners after each hand is completed move to the nearest adjacent table whilst losers remain. However no one remains in the same position as you’re constantly playing againt different partners. Losers will eventually be dealt an unbeatable hand and become winners; also pairing against other winners of varying abilities ensures it all evens itself out after several hands.

We provided 7 prizes, for the best 5 scores and to add interest for the worst 2 for being such good sports.

For those interested here is how to play the card game.

Players
The classic game of Whist is played with 4 players of 2 partnerships. Partners sit opposite one another and the game is played clockwise.
It is best to sit the fours at separate card tables.

Cards
A standard 52 card pack is used and the cards rank from the highest to the lowest, Ace, King, Queen, Jack ,10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 6, 2. Each player receives 13 cards after removing the Jokers.

Dealer
The cards are cut to determine who deals; the player with the highest of the four cards becomes the dealer. The cards are shuffled and the dealer deals out 13 cards.

Playing
The player to the dealers left leads the first card.

Rules
The game is based upon SUITES, e. g Hearts, Diamonds, Clubs, Spades and No Trumps. You must follow that SUITE if you have a card in that SUITE. If Hearts were the nominated SUITE you need to follow on and play a heart whenever you have a heart card.

When playing each hand you and your partner record a win (called a TRICK) when either has the highest card in a particular SUITE (Hearts, Diamonds, Clubs, Spades) which are called TRUMPS.

TRUMPS are nominated before the cards are dealt. If Hearts were TRUMPS the Ace of Hearts is the highest TRUMP, then King, Queen Jack 10 9 etc.

1 point for each TRICK taken, which will be the highest card in that SUITE but when there is no TRUMPS left (Hearts) then the highest card will take the TRICK.

Any card (before the trumps are all extinguished) that is not a TRUMP will be beaten by a TRUMP.

If No Trumps is the suite than it is the highest card in any suite that always wins.

After each hand the winning partners move to their right to the next table.

In Crazy Whist you can make the scoring more complicated by adding in different variations before each round , adding 4 to those who have a winning trick with a particular card not in the given SUITE etc. You announce the SUITES before each hand.

Link

Canorion Cymreig Victoria Welsh Choir

After prompting from a Welsh member of our parish I finally attended rehearsals with this choir and recently successfully auditioned to join as a Second Tenor. The choir was formed in 1980 by 7 expatriate Welshmen, and performs at least 25% of its repertoire in the Welsh language. It is quite a large male choir with 80 members made up of Bass’s, Baritones, Second Tenors and Tenors with a good sprinkling of those originally from Wales. Choir recitals are challenging since the choir sings without the aid of written music and consequently it takes a long time to learn the harmony sufficiently well from the music and to memorize all the words, before you’re competent to participate in concerts.

Nevertheless I intend to persevere with this rather full commitment (2 nights a week rehearsals and extensive touring to give concerts) and see what transpires. To date I have found the choir to be a grand group of very committed people with extensive talent covering a large repertoire of traditional choral, contemporary and operatic music.

I attended their recent St David’ s Day Concert at Monash University which was very good and featured a number of well known artists including their guest Welsh conductor who is in great demand overseas.

Apart from the choir the concert also featured a prominant harpist and a Welsh folk group called Pendragon Dreaming (Pendragon was the name given to King Arthur of the ancient Britons) with a didgeridoo, harp, guitar, flute, bass guitar and vocals. The Concert began with Welsh dancers demonstrating their traditional dances including jigs, reels, and hornpipes.

Click here if you would like to read about the recent St David’s Day Concert, or about the choir. Link

Ntandire Church/ hall inside

You may recall we held our final fundraiser and Christmas break-up party last year for the Malawi Support Group which is a small volunteer group within our local parish. At that time we sang Carols and were entertained and danced to the wonderful music of the "The Degenerates" who donated their services for the evening.

The funds raised was to be used to complete the flooring. walls and chairs for the new church and hall building in Ntdandire, Malawi. The above pictures indicate some excellant progress to date as a consequence of our last remittance. Funds assisted work undertaken to install flooring and plastering. We were overjoyed to hear the community were very happy in their new church. Work remaining is to paint the walls, install windows, seating and outside tiolets.

Dyson informs us the rainy season for Malawi has brought good falls this year and the crops are doing fine but in some cases the rains have washed away fertilizers and no yield is expected.

Link

Sorry

Today was a very emotional time for Australia for if not an overwhelming than a very substantial majority of its citizens.

In parliament, to a capacity gallery audience spilling over into the grassy surrounds amid sprinklings of indigenous colors proudly waving, to school children listening intently, to News Bulletins, Prime Minister Kevin Rudd addressed the opening of the new parliament to deliver a formal apology to the indigenous peoples of Australia.

This historic moment, a first for an Australian parliament since federation, was to say sorry, for the stolen generation of children separated from families, and for the wrongs and injustices of the past. The occasion was a first in many respects , a gallery normally subdued was encouraged by the speaker to freely show their feelings of great joy in loud warm hearted acclamation , the parliament united in a bipartisan approach, the speech heard in a deafening silence but sincere of tone, by an appreciative audience that included all previous prime Ministers with the one notable exception of John Howard. The apology was emotionally accepted amid grateful tears in spirituall atmoshere that united Australia. The apology meant an awful lot to the aboriginal community who have graciously accepted it and who spoke emotionally of the enormous burden finally lifted from their shoulders, to allow healing to take place.

And the message has really taken root with our schoolchildren throughout the nation. Teachers have encouraged the students in the lead up to talk about what is means to say sorry and engendered philosophical questions along with many in the community who have asked those same questions. How do you say sorry? Why would you say sorry? Is it okay just to be just well-meaning? Is it a good idea to say sorry even if it’s a long time ago and you were not directly responsible? How will it be recorded in history?

To day they all listened intently.

So in essence this is one of those rare times when the words mean far more than the actions, words like spirituality, sorrow, healing, peace and pride start to seem very normal parts of every day news broadcast. People were not afraid to show their emotions including many notable public figures which contributed to this collective overwhelming feeling of goodwill. And for the first time for many indigenous people, they say they are proud to be Australians, teaching us what remarkably generous people they are, beyond our imagination. We are one but many, and thankfully now we can all move forward as one.

But unless theses words are translated into measurable progress to build a comparable future for all of us as one, to eliminate any divide in Housing, Heath and Education outcomes and general wellbeing we risk tragically returning in another 50 years to reconsider it all over again.

What are the prospects? One encouraging aspect is the bipartisan Commission already set upon to work with the leaders of aboriginal communities to provide more resources for housing and pre school resources with an additional 1400 teachers, and other initiates to hopefully quickly follow.

Has Rudd the ticker to make it all work? He’s certainly aware of the need to move forward, citing St Paul words as a reminder that without action words are like clashing symbols.

Cart is a fellow Australia blogger who has also posted comprehensibly on the topic, included he has refernced the full transcript of Rudd’s delivery of the apology which you can read by visiting his blog by clicking here. Link

A Winters Adventure

Susan has a competition with a random draw ending 14 Feb for a memorable winter story.

Her options as stated are to post a winter story on her blog, as a comment to the post or if you have a longer story, you can opt to post it on your own blog letting her know where to look, as I have done. Here is my winter story.

A Winters Adventure

Winters in Sydney, Australia were mild affairs. Only briefly would you turn on the radiator in the mornings before the sun warmed the day, or later in the evening or at bedtime to switch on an electric blanket. Those seeking a snow experience invariably headed for the Snowy Mountains, immortalized in verse by one of our most famous poets Banjo Patterson with his poem about a heroic stockman who recaptured the Colt from old Regret, who was worth a thousand pounds and had got away.

So when my mate Barrie rang and suggested a weekend away with a group to visit the snowfields I readily accepted and soon our young family was headed off one crisp clear morning in anticipation of a fun filled long weekend mucking around in the snow. We were to stay in a hall, not far from Cooma which was to be our base to travel up to the snowfields.

On the first day the respective families decided to travel together up the mountain in Barrie’s vehicle, encountering our first obstacle half away up when the slippery conditions dictated chains be fitted. But we soon discovered the chains were too large, requiring a reduction of several links and hence turned into a Service Station, waiting on a long queue behind those with a similar problem. Eventually the terrible truth filtered back through the queue of disgruntled travelers, this Proprietor was out to make a “killing”, believing $ 40 a minute was the going rate for the only man with “bolt cutters” in the region. So we reluctantly paid him $40 to have just 2 links removed, in just under one minute and then fitted the chains.

Slowly we inched our way up the mountain as part of giant traffic snarl, to be greeted on arrival by a blizzard with almost zero visibility. By then the children were all very grisly but we did mange to send them out to play in the blizzard for sufficient time so that they forget about their disapointment and begged to return to the nearby Hotel which we had all discovered offered warmth and comfort. Once we returned back to the hall exhaustered it was soon time to turn in for an early night and to enjoy a good night’s sleep.

What should have been obvious but wasn’t before the trip was the inevitable result of a group of friends all sleeping in a large hall, particually after consuming a number of brandies to keep warm beforehand, it was always going to be sweet snores rather than sweet dreams.
In the morning, bleary eyed, tired, yet hopeful I decided to drive separately and hire the chains for my car at Cooma from which point we would both head up the mountain. Unbeknown to us overnight we had experienced the coldest night ever recorded in the district, for the first time ever it had snowed.

I set out for Cooma which was only a short distance away but the conditions soon became rather hazardous, so I pulled over and decided to wait for Barrie. After alighting form from the car half way up a crest, my children and wife pointed out what they thought was an unusual sight. Apparently all that was holding us to the road was our weight; once we alighted, we all watched in horror the car drifting down the road from whence it had come, gathering speed until it finally came to rest in an embankment and was eventually halted by a cushion of snow and a tree.

Eventually help arrived and we fitted borrowed chains and were able to get the car back on the road, laboriously removing them since we decided the most sensible outcome (since all of us including the car were relatively unscathed) was to set out in the opposite direction for the more peaceful and serene surroundings of Canberra, away from any further experiences involving snow and ice. It was rather a pleasant trip back home, unremarkable but pleasing due to a lack of any real dramas. Link

Emotions in the markets and workplace

Our modern way of thinking appeals primarily to management theories and a system of prudential regulation, which wax and wane in correlation with the bull and bear markets which bear their footprints.

When sudden large losses materialize, as they always will, such as what happened at the end of a period of reckless Asian bank lending in the late nineties, the accompanying credit crisis caused markets to go into a spin and for regulators and officials to intervene to tighten prudential standard in an attempt to avoid future occurrences.
Currently we have a capital crisis, caused primarily by sub prime lending in the USA and which has once again sent stocks into a sudden panicked tailspin all over the world.

Banks emotionally reacted, at times indiscriminately curtailing their lending to other banks because of lack of trust, concerned over non disclosure, fearful and hurt by what they thought was AAA rated securities backed up by real estate loans, but now realizing those borrowers were unable to repay the loans and unable to ascertain a clear picture as to the extent of the problem.
This was understandable as the securities were traded through many entities who all took varying percentage risks in the event of default. Regulators have reacted quickly by reducing rates and making available a larger borrowing pool of central bank credit to restore confidence.

China and the oil rich Middle East countries have also come to the rescue and injected large amounts of capital into the troubled financial institutions most effected in the USA and who have operations globally. Those investments are owned by the sovereign State, so we have an interesting cocktail of future investors. Will Governments intervene on the internal affairs of the company? probably not.

The sub prime housing foreclosures have also exasperated the bulging stock of homes for sale in the USA equivalent now to 10 months future supply.

The underlying theme is a lack of integrity, Securities were never AAA, Brokers were paid much greater commissions to influence borrowers to purchase sub prime mortgages over the more conventional lower cost type and Banks and regulators didn’t exercise any prudential standards. Those entering into the loans either did not know, or want to consider, the huge escalation of rates after the initial honeymoon rate period and in some instances it was fraudulent. In its earliest stages the idea had tacit support from the regulator. So what will the regulators do? Pass more prescriptive legislation about disclosure? They already have.

I prefer briefer broad descriptive type legislation that doesn’t need updating, as I think imagination is much more powerful and an effective means of communication and adapting to the spirit to the law is essential for to achieve the societal objectives to which the law aspires.( my submission is here to our own market authority )

I think we have entered into a phase of the current crisis which is purely emotional. Emotions tell us the truth about ourselves, if we dig down and find out what are all of these feelings about. I suggest in the current context there is a lack of trust? Fear? Anger? Even revenge? But it’s hard to put your figure on any one feeling. What do you think?

I think markets are always driven by emotion, it never been any different since their first inception. You will never rationally be able to define them in the short term. In the longer term however the fundamentals come into play just as I think organizations of integrity underpin the market longer term. The others are in danger of collapsing when the emotional temperature is turned up high.

This crisis I think may be over in year or so, nobody knows exactly? , maybe we will now become worried about what China will do, and then there will be further panic and so on.

Currently there are a small but growing number of organization leaders who are not afraid of their feelings and are confident enough to become vulnerable by talking about how they feel and how they are empowered by the trust they place in the integrity of others. You can always recover from genuine mistakes, they need not hold our fears, but you’re likely to become very emotional when faced with widespread mistrust and deception which leads to unintended consequences.

What’s your experience in the workplace and how important do you think are our emotions? Link

A family Tree

Recently well known Australian actor and celebrity Jack Thompson, who was adopted as a child by the Thompson family appeared on national TV talking about his recently discovered biological family.

A friend emailed me to ask about my own family tree because of the name and history similarities; soon it was discovered I was a distant cousin.
In looking back on my family tree it reminds me of the many interesting aspects of my parent’s ancestors, as what was mentioned by Jack Thompson.

On my fathers side my great, great Grandfather arrived from Ireland where he had been convicted of armed robbery, and ,once he gained his ticket, (a free pardon) married and settled in the seaside town of Ballina in NSW. Henceforth those 3 generations were all involved in the cedar getting industry. My great grandfather fathered 15 children and both managed to live on to a respectable age. Not only were the descendants all involved in the Cedar industry but their children married into families who in turn were heavily involved and all stayed within the one district. On my Grandmothers side co incidentally they were also all Cedar Getters. Some rose to prominence and their history is recorded in local historical texts. One was known as the Cedar King who purchased the biggest cedars tree ever felled, one that yielded 38,000 feet of timber. What a sacrilege, to cut down such a majestic forestry giants!! Nevertheless he went on to become mayor and prominent citizen whose poetry, epitaphs and stories of the Richmond appeared in many publications. Within that family tree is also recorded a marriage to a scar faced convict whilst another’s mother was descended from royalty, but disinherited as she married a master mariner, considered to be well below her rank in life.
On my Mothers side both grandparents were first generation English migrants who also settled In Ballina. Link

My Daughter on National TV

My youngest daughter Rachael recently appeared on national TV (A Current Affair) talking and singing about downshifting with another suburban warrior. Press play above to watch the segment.

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Habits

Tagged on my habits

Gary tagged me to tell eight random facts or habits about myself. In turn, I need to tag others. The rules, should you decide to accept them: 1 - Each player starts with eight random facts/habits about themselves. 2 - People who are tagged need to write a post on their own blog (about their eight things) and post these rules. 3 - At the end of your blog, you need to choose others to get tagged and list their names. 4 - Don’t forget to leave them a comment telling them they’re tagged, and to read your blog.

Eight random facts or habits about myself.
I’m more an evening person, who’s therefore more likely to sleep in in the morning. But I’m not totally incorrigible; especially since water restrictions force me rise very early to water the garden veggie patch at least 2 mornings a week.

I like making lists, including the time to complete each task and to tick them off as they are completed

But timekeeping is not my best trait; I am often about 5 minutes late. Even when we have our choir practice at our home the members may be already knocking on the door as I am just finishing my breakfast.

Sometimes I can be easily distracted but when it comes to formal presentations my preference is to be always well prepared.

People think I am usually generous.

I don’t give up easily; rather I will persevere like a dog with a bone. When I badly dislocated my shoulder and fractured my elbow and radial arc I was told golf would never be possible again, but, with the help of a good physio I was soon regularly playing again.

As I have become older (and hopefully wiser) sometimes I’ve become too much of a talk feast.

Singing began formerly for me in my thirties which brought about a change in taste to prefer opera; as it remains, but I also appreciate most musical forms.

I will leave it up to any one reading this post if they would like to be tagged and join in. Link

Christmas break-up party

We held our final fundraiser and Christmas break-up party for the Malawi Support Group where we sang Carols and were entertained and danced to the wonderful music of the "The Degenerates" who donated their services for the evening.The funds raised will be used to complete the flooring. walls and chairs for the new church and hall building in Ntdandire, Malawi. I will have pictures in the New Year.

At this time each year we exchange Christmas cards to include family news and best wishes. Below was a simple but inspiring short message prefacing an email I received from a medical missionary who I have previously corresponded with in Malawi, now back in Ireland –I pass it on to you at this time of the year also with my best wishes ~

May the Spirit of Christmas bring you peace, the gladness of Christmas give you hope, the warmth of Christmas grant you love with every good wish.

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Summer

Summer is officially upon us, as is evidenced by our dry backyard, contrasted by the green from our small vegie patch of tomatoes, letuce and zucini, kept moist by a layer of sugar cane mulch ( advised and set up by Chris Willams)

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